2026开工黄金市场分析：多维度解读，趋势仍有空间

Group 1: Tariffs and Trade - The U.S. ruling on Trump's tariffs deemed them illegal, but Trump plans to continue imposing additional tariffs regardless of legality, which is seen as detrimental to global trade and economic development [4] - The uncertainty in global trade is expected to support gold prices, as gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of instability, with recent prices reaching $5,100 per ounce [4] Group 2: U.S. Employment and Monetary Policy - The U.S. employment situation appears grim despite optimistic official data, indicating a potential discrepancy in reported figures [6] - Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to continue interest rate cuts while also shifting from quantitative easing to balance sheet reduction to control inflation, which may create a more flexible monetary policy environment [6][8] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S.-Iran situation are contributing to a sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, despite no significant breakthroughs in negotiations [10][12] - The market's reaction to the U.S.-Iran verbal confrontations has already led to a slight increase in gold prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on investor sentiment [12] Group 4: Market Sentiment and ETF Holdings - Recent data shows significant increases in holdings of gold and silver ETFs, with silver ETF holdings rising by 312 tons and gold ETF holdings increasing by approximately 10 to 11 tons [15] - The overall market environment remains supportive of gold, with no clear negative signals emerging, despite potential short-term fluctuations due to policy uncertainties and bond yield volatility [17]