卡位周期全产业链脉络，中欧“四小龙”构建差异化布局

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold and silver prices have caused volatility in the A-share cyclical sector, but the fundamental "supply-demand resonance" of the cyclical industry remains unchanged, supported by global power supply constraints, new demand from AI infrastructure and energy storage, and strategic reserve demands driven by national "resource security" policies [1][5] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The cyclical industry is supported by a complete layout covering upstream resources, midstream chemicals, and downstream agriculture, with four funds from China Europe Fund focusing on the cyclical industry chain [1][3] - The four funds, managed by different fund managers, aim to achieve comprehensive coverage of cyclical investments, with specific focuses on energy metals, industrial metals, natural resources, basic chemicals, and agriculture [3][4] Group 2: Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the China Europe Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A has achieved a cumulative return of 104.16% since its establishment on November 14, 2023, significantly outperforming its benchmark [4][10] - The China Europe Resource Selection Fund A has a return of 80.46% since its inception, exceeding its performance benchmark by 33.88 percentage points, focusing on core resource varieties like copper and aluminum [4][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current third global commodity cycle is characterized by structural adjustments in the global economy, industrial upgrades, and geopolitical changes, with historical cycles providing a reference for understanding the uniqueness and sustainability of this cycle [5][6] - The ongoing global commodity cycle is expected to be prolonged, with major economies emphasizing "resource security," which supports the demand for core commodities like copper and aluminum [6][7] Group 4: 2026 Investment Directions - Fund managers have outlined investment directions for 2026, focusing on commodities such as copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, gold, and small metals, while also considering opportunities in chemicals and coking coal [8][9] - The cyclical industry is expected to benefit from continued liquidity easing and supply-side constraints, with a focus on price-elastic new energy metals and industries that can increase reserves and production under "resource security" policies [8][9]