中金:联想集团PC市占率突破25%,AI驱动增长,维持"跑赢行业"评级
Ge Long Hui·2026-02-24 07:25

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group has achieved a record high in global PC market share, with accelerated growth in AI business, leading to overall performance exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Lenovo reported a revenue of $22.204 billion for Q3 FY26, representing an 18% year-on-year increase; Non-HKFRS net profit reached $589 million, up 36% year-on-year [2] - AI-related business grew by 72% year-on-year, contributing 32% to total revenue, making it a key growth driver for the company [2] - The company demonstrated effective cost control, resulting in an operating profit margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 4.3%, indicating ongoing recovery in profitability [2] Group 2: Market Position and Supply Chain - According to IDC, Lenovo's global PC market share reached 24.9% in 2025, a historic high, with Q4 2025 alone achieving 25.3% [3] - Lenovo has outpaced industry average PC sales growth for ten consecutive quarters, attributed to its strong global supply chain management and product innovation capabilities [3] - The company has implemented long-term contracts and flexible pricing strategies to mitigate cost pressures from rising prices of key components, maintaining a stable operating profit margin of 7.3% in the IDG business [3] Group 3: AI Server Business - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported a revenue of $5.176 billion for the quarter, a 31% year-on-year increase, with AI server revenue showing high double-digit growth [4] - The project order backlog for AI servers reached $15.5 billion, indicating strong demand and future growth potential [4] - ISG is undergoing a one-time restructuring to enhance efficiency, with expectations of achieving profitability in Q4 FY26 [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the continuous increase in PC market share and effective cost management, the profit forecast for FY26 Non-HKFRS net profit has been raised by 6.5% to $1.801 billion, while FY27 profit estimates remain largely unchanged [5] - The current stock price corresponds to Non-HKFRS P/E ratios of 8.2x and 7.5x for FY26 and FY27, respectively, significantly lower than some comparable companies [5] - The company’s valuation is expected to have upside potential driven by AI-driven growth and improved profitability [5]