麦格理上调联想目标价至 12.93 港元，维持跑赢大市评级 ISG 业务迎盈利拐点

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie maintains an "outperform" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 12.93, indicating a potential total return of 44.1% based on the current stock price of HKD 9.00 [1] Financial Performance - Lenovo's revenue for Q3 of FY26 (December) surged 18% year-on-year to USD 22.204 billion, exceeding Macquarie and Visible Alpha's consensus estimates by 5% [1] - Non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards net profit increased by 36% year-on-year to USD 589 million, surpassing Macquarie and VA's expectations by 11% and 23% respectively [1] - Despite a one-time restructuring cost of USD 285 million in ISG, the company demonstrated steady improvement in profitability, with operating profit rising 37% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - All core business segments showed strong performance, with IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) revenue up 14% year-on-year and PC market share increasing to 25.3% [2] - AI device revenue accounted for 40% of total revenue, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase [2] - ISG revenue grew 31% year-on-year, exceeding Macquarie and VA's expectations by 6% and 11% respectively, with operating losses narrowing significantly [3] Future Outlook - Macquarie forecasts that Lenovo's revenue and operating profit for Q4 of FY26 will grow by 13.8% and 27.6% year-on-year, respectively, with ISG expected to be the fastest-growing segment [4] - The company has secured sufficient memory supply and plans to use dynamic pricing to manage component cost fluctuations [4] - Key catalysts for Lenovo's stock price include the expansion of AI server revenue, the profitability of ISG, and the ongoing AI upgrade cycle in the PC segment [4] Valuation and Investment Potential - Lenovo is considered to have significant investment value, ranking in the top 11% of the industry for valuation factors [5] - The company is expected to achieve a compound revenue growth rate of 10.6% and an adjusted EPS compound growth rate of 19.4% from FY26 to FY28 [5] - High profitability and growth characteristics are evident, with a return on equity (ROE) consistently around 30% and a declining net debt-to-equity ratio [5]