全球抛弃美元，美霸权裂痕，再也补不上了?

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility of the US dollar and questions whether it is a temporary setback or a sign of a more significant decline in its dominance as a global reserve currency. Group 1: Dollar's Current Status - The US dollar has long been synonymous with "safety," attracting global capital during times of war and financial turmoil [1] - Recent years have seen increased economic volatility and erratic Federal Reserve policies, leading to uncertainty in the dollar system [2] - A significant sell-off of US Treasury bonds is underway, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4] Group 2: Changes in Global Holdings - Foreign central banks are actively selling US Treasury bonds, with holdings dropping to $2.7 trillion as of last October, the lowest since August 2012 [7] - This decline in US Treasury holdings reflects a broader trend of central banks diversifying their reserve assets, moving away from a dollar-centric approach [10] - China's holdings of US debt have halved from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 to approximately $682.6 billion by the end of 2025 [12] Group 3: Rise of Gold as an Alternative - Central banks have been increasing their gold reserves for over a year, viewing it as a safer asset amid geopolitical risks [10][13] - The price of gold has been rising, driven by its appeal as a hedge against inflation and a means to mitigate risks associated with dollar-denominated assets [13] Group 4: Emergence of the Renminbi - The Renminbi is increasingly being used in international trade, challenging the dollar's dominance [15] - China has signed multiple currency swap agreements, allowing for direct Renminbi settlements in cross-border trade, reducing reliance on the dollar [16] - The use of a Renminbi and gold combination for trade settlements is being explored, particularly in Southeast Asia, further diversifying the global trade settlement landscape [16][20]