国金证券：白酒动销符合预期 餐饮链超预期改善

Core Viewpoint - The overall sales performance of the liquor industry during the Spring Festival met pre-holiday market expectations, with an estimated year-on-year decline of approximately 10%-15% in total channel sales [1][2][3] Liquor Sector - The sales of premium liquor, particularly Feitian Moutai, showed strong performance with prices remaining above 1700 yuan, indicating resilience in demand despite a general decline in business consumption [2][3] - The decline in industry sales is attributed to weak government-related business demand, reflecting a gap in the recovery of consumption scenarios, while general consumer demand remains stable [2][3] - The performance of high-end and low-end liquor products was notably better than mid-range products, driven by wealth effects and the recovery of inventory levels [3] Consumer Goods Sector - The restaurant chain segment, including condiments and frozen foods, is expected to see significant improvement due to increased demand from dining out and travel during the Spring Festival [4] - The snack sector maintains high growth, with strong sales during the holiday period, particularly in gift packaging, and is expected to initiate inventory replenishment post-holiday [4][5] - Dairy and beverage gift products performed well, especially functional and health-oriented drinks, while dairy products are gradually recovering but face challenges due to increased supply and reduced gifting demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on leading companies in the restaurant chain segment and snack sector, such as Haitian Flavor Industry, Yihai International, and Qiaqia Food, while also monitoring the product promotion pace of Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring for potential short-term opportunities [7]