南华期货：地缘与贸易关税避险升温 贵金属春节期间收涨

Macro News - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported at 1150.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 3.52%, opening at 1160.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1162.2 CNY per gram and a low of 1142.00 CNY per gram [1] - COMEX gold futures closed at 5130 USD per ounce with a weekly increase of 1.66%, while COMEX silver futures closed at 84.57 USD per ounce with a weekly increase of 8.47% [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased geopolitical and trade tariff risks, along with the CPI data released on February 12 supporting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Institutional Views - The precious metals market experienced a three-phase increase driven by data, rising geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainties during the Spring Festival [1] - The current market is at a convergence of marginal easing in Federal Reserve monetary policy and fragmentation in the global trade system, highlighting gold's value as a non-credit currency and safe-haven asset [1] - Attention is needed on the potential implementation of a 15% temporary tariff and possible retaliatory measures from trade partners, which could further elevate safe-haven demand [1] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on March 19 will be crucial for validating the path for rate cuts, with key data points to watch including the U.S. non-farm payroll report in early March and CPI data in mid-March [1] - The strategy remains bullish on precious metals, with a focus on opportunities for silver in terms of gold-silver ratio recovery [1]