美伊冲突催化，石油ETF（561360）大涨超6%，近20日净流入超21亿元

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge of over 6% in the oil ETF (561360) indicates a shift in oil pricing from fundamental factors to being driven by geopolitical news, with market focus on the probability of future supply disruptions rather than current inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil price is currently influenced more by geopolitical events than by traditional supply-demand analysis, with any minor developments potentially causing significant price fluctuations [1][2]. - The market is now more concerned with geopolitical tensions, such as military movements or negotiations, rather than traditional metrics like OECD inventory levels or Chinese demand recovery [2]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The risk of oil prices rising is greater than the risk of them falling, especially if military tensions between the US and Iran escalate or if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes major companies in exploration, extraction, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the oil and gas sector [2].