Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-24 09:09Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, coupled with a weaker dollar and improved global liquidity, will lead to a sustained supply-demand gap in silver, driving up silver prices. This price increase will directly benefit silver mining companies, particularly those with high-grade silver mines, such as Shengda Resources (000603) [1]. Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - Short-term inventory disturbances have intensified, leading to significant price volatility in silver after a notable price increase [2]. - Global visible silver inventory has shown a declining trend over the past five years, with COMEX inventory decreasing and LMBA inventory down by approximately 10,000 tons from its 2021 peak [2]. - The London silver market's leasing rates remain high, indicating a potential "squeezing" risk [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Independent silver mining capacity accounts for less than 30% of total production, with rising mining costs and sluggish supply growth [3]. - According to the U.S. Geological Survey, global silver reserves are projected to reach 640,000 tons by 2024, with slow overall growth [3]. - The majority of global silver production (over 50%) comes from Mexico, China, and Peru, primarily as by-products of copper, lead, and zinc mining [3]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - Silver is increasingly recognized as an essential metal for AI, with industrial demand driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [4]. - The World Silver Association reports a persistent supply-demand gap since 2021, with investment demand correlating positively with price increases [4].