知名对冲基金经理：软件债务危机，仅因AI恐惧就可能爆发

Group 1 - The founder of Arini warns that even before the substantial impact of AI on the software industry is realized, market panic alone is sufficient to increase corporate financing costs, potentially leading to widespread defaults [1] - The software industry is currently experiencing a prolonged sell-off, with investors concerned that the rapid evolution of AI technology poses a fundamental threat to the business models of software companies, which are already burdened with high debt levels relative to their earnings [1] - Direct lending institutions are reducing their exposure, which may exacerbate the impact on the software sector, as companies in this industry typically operate with high leverage and rely heavily on private credit markets [2] Group 2 - The private credit market has expanded rapidly, reaching a size of $1.8 trillion, prompting regulatory scrutiny [3] - The founder of Arini emphasizes that while regulatory tightening does not necessarily reduce investment opportunities, the industry must acknowledge the balance between risk and return [3] - The concentration of private credit in the software sector is deemed excessive, with concerns raised about the wisdom of lending at such levels in a mediocre-performing loan industry [2]