2月MLF续作加量3000亿，短期内降准的可能性较小

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continued supportive monetary policy stance amid potential tightening pressures [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On February 25, 2026, the PBOC will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1]. - The MLF rollover in February is 300 billion, which is less than the previous month's 700 billion, indicating a smaller increase in liquidity [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Economic Stability - The net liquidity injection in February reached 900 billion, continuing a trend of net injections for 10 months, although slightly lower than the previous month's 1 trillion [1]. - The increase in MLF and other liquidity measures aims to support major projects and stabilize macroeconomic operations, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds [1][2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The significant increase in mid-term liquidity injections suggests a reduced likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term, indicating a period of observation following the introduction of structural policies in January [2]. - The PBOC's actions are intended to counter potential liquidity tightening effects while ensuring stable funding for government bond issuance and maintaining credit support from banks [2].