从暴跌31%到溢价走升，国投白银LOF故事未完

Core Viewpoint - The temporary suspension of trading for Guotai Asset Management's Guotai Silver LOF fund has raised concerns about the boundaries of risk-bearing in the public fund industry, especially following significant net value fluctuations and a controversial compensation plan [1][4]. Group 1: Trading Suspension and Market Response - On February 24, Guotai Silver LOF announced a one-hour trading suspension, with the fund's price experiencing high volatility upon resumption, ultimately closing at the daily limit [1]. - The fund's secondary market price has been significantly above its net asset value, leading to a premium rate of 21.25% as of February 13 [3]. - The fund's management indicated that if the premium did not decrease effectively, they would apply for further trading suspensions to warn the market of risks [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation Adjustments and Investor Impact - Following unusual fluctuations in international silver prices, Guotai Silver LOF adjusted its valuation method, resulting in a net value drop exceeding 31% on February 2, marking a record decline for public funds [3]. - Investors who submitted redemption requests before the announcement of the valuation change faced unexpected losses, with some losing more than they anticipated [3]. Group 3: Compensation Plan Controversy - A compensation plan was announced on February 15, offering full compensation for individual investors with losses under 1,000 yuan, while larger losses would be compensated proportionally [4]. - This compensation approach has sparked debate within the industry, as it deviates from the norm where market participants typically bear the risks of significant net value fluctuations [5]. - Legal experts suggest that the basis for compensation hinges on whether there were procedural flaws or insufficient information disclosure, rather than mere investment judgment errors [5]. Group 4: Financial Impact and Company Response - The compensation plan is expected to have a negative impact on the company's net profit for 2026, estimated to be less than 5% of the audited net profit for 2024, which translates to a maximum impact of approximately 135 million yuan [6]. - Guotai Capital stated that the incident would not materially affect the overall business and emphasized the need for enhanced compliance and risk control measures [7].