2025年古巴经济收缩5%

Core Insights - The Cuban economy is projected to contract by approximately 5% in 2025, with a cumulative decline of over 15% since 2020, primarily due to a persistent energy crisis since mid-2024 [1] - The Cuban government has not released official data, but President Díaz-Canel indicated a 4% GDP shrinkage in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Electricity generation in Cuba has decreased by 13.7% year-on-year [1] - The official inflation rate for the year is reported at 14.07%, with unofficial estimates suggesting higher figures, particularly a 70% increase in basic food prices [1] - Although the government has managed to reduce the fiscal deficit to a controllable level, there is still a lack of structural reforms and substantial macroeconomic adjustments [1] - The economic situation in 2025 indicates that Cuba continues to rely on outdated economic models, lacking effective mechanisms for transformation to address the urgent need for structural reforms and resilience [1] - The outlook for Cuba in 2026 is highly uncertain due to the situation in Venezuela, making the government's 1% economic growth forecast appear overly optimistic [1]