贵金属马力全开！春节白银狂飙17%，黄金冲破5240美元

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price surged to over $5240 per ounce, marking a three-week high, while silver saw a remarkable increase of nearly 17% during the recent Spring Festival holiday, driven by geopolitical tensions and sudden changes in U.S. trade policy [1][13]. Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. military has amassed its largest air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War, including at least 36 F-16s, 12 F-22s, and over 60 F-35s, alongside a significant naval presence with two aircraft carrier strike groups [3][4]. - Iran has entered a heightened state of military readiness, conducting drills and threatening retaliation against U.S. bases and allies if attacked, indicating a potential for escalating conflict [6]. Trade Policy Changes - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the legality of the Trump administration's global tariffs, potentially leading to a refund of approximately $175 billion, which constitutes about 60% of U.S. tariff revenue [6][7]. - Following the ruling, President Trump announced an increase in global import tariffs from 10% to 15%, effective immediately, which has heightened market uncertainty and concerns among trading partners [7][9]. Market Reactions - The dual pressures of geopolitical risks and trade policy changes have led to a significant increase in precious metal prices, with gold and silver becoming the primary safe-haven assets for investors [1][13]. - The silver market is facing a critical situation, with registered silver inventories dropping below 100 million ounces, while outstanding futures contracts far exceed available physical silver, raising concerns about liquidity [10][12]. Domestic Market Dynamics - In contrast to the international surge in gold prices, domestic gold prices in China have shown a decline, indicating a complex interplay of local supply-demand dynamics and currency fluctuations [15]. - Despite the drop in domestic gold prices, retail prices for gold jewelry remain stable, reflecting the intricate factors influencing the market amid global uncertainties [15].