HP Inc. Earnings Preview: What Wall Street Is Watching

Core Viewpoint - HP Inc. is under pressure as its stock has declined 17% year-to-date, trading near its 52-week low of $18.12, with significant concerns regarding memory cost inflation and the sustainability of the PC refresh cycle impacting its earnings outlook [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - HP's fiscal Q4 2025 revenue was $14.64 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $14.49 billion and representing a 4% year-over-year growth [1]. - Non-GAAP EPS for Q4 2025 was $0.93, slightly above expectations of $0.92 [1]. - Personal Systems revenue grew by 8% due to increased average selling prices and a 7% increase in unit sales, while Printing revenue declined by 4% year-over-year [1]. Group 2: Earnings Guidance and Challenges - For fiscal Q1 2026, consensus estimates are a non-GAAP EPS of $0.77 and revenue of $13.925 billion [1]. - Management has indicated a 30-cent headwind to full-year earnings due to projected memory cost increases, which now account for 15% to 18% of the cost of a typical PC [1]. - The company is implementing strategies to mitigate memory cost impacts, including qualifying lower-cost suppliers and redesigning products for reduced memory configurations [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Wall Street analysts are cautious, with 10 out of 17 analysts rating the stock as a hold, 3 as a sell, and 1 as a strong sell, with an average price target of $23.21 [1]. - Major firms like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have sell ratings with price targets set at $18 [1]. Group 4: Future Outlook - HP's Investor Day is scheduled for April 23, where management will discuss the impact of AI on the business, making the upcoming earnings results critical for setting the narrative [1]. - The demand for AI PCs (AIPCs) is expected to increase, with AIPCs representing over 30% of shipments in Q4 and projected to reach 40% to 50% in fiscal 2026 [1].