金价：大家做好准备，信号非常明确，接下来或迎新一轮历史行情？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant divergence between international and domestic prices, with international gold prices reaching historical highs while domestic prices are declining, highlighting structural differences in market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On February 24, 2026, the London spot gold price reached $5237.33 per ounce, up $73.26 (1.42%) from the previous day, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange's futures contract fell to ¥1110.1 per gram, down ¥18.16 (1.61%) [1]. - During the holiday period, on February 23, the London gold price surged by $117, marking a 2.35% increase, while the Shanghai market remained closed, leading to a widening price gap of ¥34 per gram, the largest in nearly a decade [3]. - The price divergence is attributed to differences in trading mechanisms, with the Shanghai market being closed during the holiday while the London market continued to operate [3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Investment Trends - Despite the decline in domestic gold prices, there has been a significant inflow of funds into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of ¥3.26 billion on February 13, 2026, indicating strong investor interest [4][6]. - Historical data shows that when domestic prices fall more than international prices, there is a tendency for domestic prices to rebound within three trading days, with a historical probability of 85% for such rebounds [7]. - The People's Bank of China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2307.57 tons) as of January 2026, which supports long-term demand for gold [9]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Activity - In 2025, global central banks purchased a record 863 tons of gold, with several countries, including Poland and Malaysia, increasing their gold reserves in early 2026 [9][10]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to provide a supportive backdrop for gold prices in the long term [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [15][21]. - Analysts predict a strong rebound in domestic gold prices following the holiday, driven by the significant price gap created during the market closure [20][21].