黄力晨：黄金短线回调修正 仍有再次冲高机会

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the heightened risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, have led to increased market risk aversion, supporting a rise in gold prices, which reached a new high for the month [1][2]. Price Movements - Gold prices surged to a new high of $5249 but faced resistance, leading to a significant drop of nearly $80 to $5145 before stabilizing [1]. - Following this, gold experienced another decline of about $60, reaching $5092, before rebounding to $5173, indicating a high-level fluctuation [1][4]. Market Influences - The recent increase in gold prices was influenced by several factors, including profit-taking by investors after a substantial short-term rise, which intensified selling pressure [2]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of comprehensive tariffs and the announcement of a temporary 10% tariff alternative reduced extreme policy uncertainty, weakening safe-haven buying [2]. - Anticipation of U.S.-Iran negotiations on the 26th has also contributed to a decrease in safe-haven demand, as no immediate military action occurred as previously speculated [2]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with support levels at $5090 and $5020, while resistance is noted at $5200 and $5260 [4]. - Technical indicators suggest a need for adjustment after a series of increases, with the 5-day moving average showing a slight golden cross and MACD indicators also indicating a mild bullish trend [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the overall long-term trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases [2][4]. - The market is advised to adopt a range-bound trading strategy, monitoring support and resistance levels closely for potential rebounds [4].