春节消费分化，出行服务亮眼

Core Viewpoint - The consumption during the 2026 Spring Festival shows a differentiated performance, with sectors like hotels, scenic spots, and high-end liquor performing well, while retail and box office results are generally average. The overall consumption recovery is ongoing, with a focus on potential fiscal stimulus policies in the short term [1]. Travel Sector - The 2026 Spring Festival features a 9-day holiday, leading to increased travel with a trend of "returning home first, then traveling." The favorable weather conditions contributed to a 5.2% year-on-year increase in cross-regional mobility during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel period. Hotel occupancy rates averaged 51.4%, with a 3.3 percentage point increase year-on-year, and average daily rates (ADR) rose by 10.1% to 293.1 yuan. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased by 17.6% to 150.1 yuan, exceeding pre-holiday expectations [2]. Liquor Sector - The liquor market aligns with expectations, showing a continued trend of differentiation. High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye performed significantly better than mid-tier brands. The demand structure has shifted, with a stable demand during the Spring Festival concentrated in the price segment below 300 yuan. The solid performance during the Spring Festival is expected to support steady sales throughout the year, indicating a potential recovery opportunity for leading brands [3]. Retail Sector - Retail performance was impacted by travel, with a reported 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and catering enterprises compared to the previous year. The jewelry market showed mixed results, with significant growth in specific areas like Shenzhen, where foot traffic surged over 30%. However, overall customer flow was lower than the previous year due to the long holiday and high travel numbers [4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes short-term focus on turning points and long-term structural changes. The current low expectations and resilient consumption trends are expected to enhance investment preferences in the consumption sector. The year 2026 is seen as a critical year for establishing the consumption industry's recovery. A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing service consumption with high-dividend assets while monitoring opportunities in the supply chain as CPI turns positive [6][7].