德银称油价是追踪美债收益率的“主要变量”

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Deutsche Bank indicates that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is primarily influenced by oil prices, while geopolitical shocks have little direct impact on yields [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Data - Rising oil prices and unexpectedly strong economic data significantly increase Treasury yields [2]. - The report identifies oil prices as a "key variable" to track for understanding U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - Amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, market focus is on geopolitical shocks, although these do not directly affect Treasury yields [2]. - President Trump has indicated a potential military strike on Iran if diplomatic solutions are not reached, coinciding with a significant military buildup in the region [2]. Group 3: Recent Yield Movements - During the period of military buildup, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 21 basis points, from 4.24% at the end of January to 4.03%, marking the largest monthly decline in the past year [1][2].