万联证券：26年预计促消费政策导向将保持稳定 关注出行链业绩回暖信号

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the consumer promotion policy is expected to remain stable until 2026, but the recovery of the fundamental economy will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets [1] - The social service sector is projected to focus on structural opportunities in the first half of the year, with a total of 42 listed companies having released performance forecasts for 2025, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall expected profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors [2][3] - The consumption structure in China is shifting from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption anticipated to become a primary growth engine [1] Group 2 - The social service industry consists of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released performance forecasts, placing the disclosure rate at 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors [2] - Among the companies that have released forecasts, only 14% are expected to see year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, a decrease of 4% compared to 2024; the proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively [2] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts expected to be profitable; the hotel and restaurant sector is also performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios [3]