复旦智库：冲击与重构：复旦国际战略报告2025

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that the global landscape is undergoing significant upheaval and restructuring, primarily driven by the policies of the Trump administration, which has accelerated the process of multipolarity and the rise of the Global South, leading the world towards a post-American era [1][11][12] - The report highlights that the international political landscape in 2025 will be characterized by both severe turbulence and structural reconfiguration, with the U.S. tariff policies and economic security measures disrupting global trade and supply chains, resulting in increased vulnerability in the global economy [1][11] - The geopolitical situation is marked by ongoing conflicts, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, regional tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa, and the challenges faced by Europe due to internal divisions and external pressures [1][11][12] Group 2 - China's foreign diplomacy is characterized by a focus on countering external pressures through equal retaliation, improving bilateral relations with multiple countries, and promoting regional cooperation, thereby enhancing its role in global governance [2][12] - The report notes that different regions are experiencing varied developmental characteristics, with South Asia facing conflicts, the Korean Peninsula seeing increased militarization, and Southeast Asia experiencing political turmoil alongside economic growth [2][12] - The report anticipates that the world will remain in a state of turmoil and restructuring in 2026, with the old order gradually disintegrating and the contours of a new order beginning to emerge, making the transformation of the global governance system a central issue [2][12]