供给端边际改善叠加“反内卷”政策预期升温，钢铁ETF（515210）盘中涨超5.7%

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a rebound driven by marginal improvements on the supply side and rising expectations for "anti-involution" policies, leading to a significant increase in the steel ETF (515210) by over 5.7% during trading [1] Supply Side - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased to 86.4%, up by 0.7 percentage points, with daily molten iron output rising to 2.306 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [4] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations are strengthening the logic for production cuts, which could accelerate the rebalancing of supply and demand in the steel industry [4] - Historical trends indicate that improvements in steel industry profitability typically arise from either strong demand driving price increases or supply reductions improving industry dynamics [4] Inventory and Demand - Social inventory of the five major steel products reached 10.267 million tons, a 9.2% increase, while steel mill inventory rose by 4.7% to 4.161 million tons [5] - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.4% to 6.891 million tons, with rebar consumption dropping by 31.0% [5] - The current inventory increase is attributed to seasonal factors, and if demand rebounds post-holiday, a downward trend in inventory could be anticipated [6] Raw Materials and Profit Margins - The Platts 62% iron ore price index fell to $96.5 per ton, a decrease of 3.7% week-on-week, indicating a weakening trend in raw material prices [7] - The immediate gross profit for long-process rebar was -175 yuan per ton, and for hot-rolled coil, it was -357 yuan per ton, showing marginal improvement despite remaining in a loss position [7] - Historical data suggests that steel stock prices often lead gross profit by 1-2 quarters, indicating that the market is already pricing in expected profit improvements [7] Valuation and Allocation - The steel sector has undergone significant valuation recovery, moving from extreme undervaluation to a moderately low range, still offering absolute return potential [8] - The steel sector's pricing logic is shifting from "pessimistic clearance" to "profit recovery," driven by supply-side policies and macroeconomic stabilization [8] - The steel ETF (515210) serves as a representative product for the industry, reflecting changes in the profitability cycle and offering advantages in diversifying individual stock risks while capturing overall industry trends [8]