方正证券：景气度拐点已显 长期看好造船市场景气上行

Group 1 - The global new ship orders are projected to reach 2,036 vessels and 56.43 million CGT by 2025, representing a 27% year-on-year decline in CGT due to factors such as long shipyard schedules and the impact of the US 301 investigation [1] - The oil transportation market remains strong, with VLCC spot rates reaching a nearly six-year high, averaging $146,000 per day as of February 20, 2023, reflecting robust market conditions [1] - The aging fleet and the acceleration of decarbonization efforts are expected to drive long-term demand for fleet renewal, supporting the current shipbuilding cycle [1] Group 2 - South Korean shipowner Sinokor has aggressively acquired over 40 VLCCs this year, significantly impacting the pricing structure and liquidity of the market, with one-year charter rates for various VLCC types reaching historical highs [2] - The value of second-hand VLCCs has surged, with a 15-year-old VLCC valued at approximately $83 million, a 57% increase year-on-year, and a 10-year-old VLCC priced at about $105 million, reflecting a 26% year-on-year rise [2] - The supply-demand gap for VLCCs is widening, with nearly 20% of the current fleet over 20 years old, and the expectation of a new wave of orders as shipowners reinvest profits from high market conditions into new shipbuilding [3]