Why I'm Not Buying Nvidia Stock

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to report significant revenue growth and strong guidance, but its current stock valuation raises concerns for potential investors [2][3][8]. Business Performance - Nvidia's fiscal Q3 results showed a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to $57.0 billion, up from 56% growth in fiscal Q2 [5]. - The data center segment remains a key driver, with revenue rising 66% year-over-year to $51.2 billion in fiscal Q3, compared to $41.1 billion in fiscal Q2 [5]. - The company's GAAP gross margin was 73.4% in fiscal Q3, slightly down from 74.6% a year earlier [6]. Demand and Guidance - Nvidia's CFO noted that demand for AI infrastructure is exceeding expectations, with the GPU installed base fully utilized [7]. - For fiscal Q4, Nvidia guided revenue of approximately $65.0 billion, implying about 65.4% year-over-year growth compared to $39.3 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. Valuation Concerns - Nvidia's stock is currently trading at around 48 times earnings, indicating a premium valuation that reflects high growth expectations [8]. - There is a risk of valuation compression if growth rates decline or if pricing power diminishes over time, leading to ordinary returns despite continued growth [9]. - A significant margin of safety is preferred before investing in Nvidia, as current valuations do not support a forecast of a 15% annual return [9]. Market Context - Nvidia's market capitalization stands at $4.7 trillion, making it a focal point for investors and potentially impacting broader market indexes [2]. - The stock's current price range is between $187.40 and $193.77, with a 52-week range of $86.62 to $212.19 [10]. Investment Strategy - While Nvidia's business fundamentals are strong, the stock's valuation does not present an attractive entry point for investment at this time [12]. - Investors who believe in the long-term potential of AI may consider starting a small position, but should be cautious of the associated valuation risks [11].