AI资本支出激增，电网更吃紧！高盛大幅上调全球AI用电预期：2030年需求暴增220%

Core Insights - The investment in AI is shifting from chips and servers to electricity, with major cloud providers increasing capital expenditures and R&D budgets, leading to a significant rise in data center electricity demand [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for global data center electricity demand by 220% by 2030 compared to 2023, with approximately 60% of this demand expected to come from the U.S. [3][5] - The report highlights a growing concern about the supply chain's ability to deliver electricity on time, as the integration and delivery cycles for power infrastructure are lengthening [1][6] Electricity Demand Forecast - Goldman Sachs estimates that the global data center electricity demand will increase by 905 TWh by 2030, up from a previous estimate of 175% growth to 220% [3] - The U.S. is projected to account for about 60% of this increase, with data center capacity expected to rise to 95 GW by 2030 [3][5] - The annualized growth rate for U.S. electricity demand has been raised to 3.2%, with data centers contributing 2 percentage points to this growth [5][6] Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on data center electricity supply chain stocks, indicating a longer investment cycle in infrastructure to avoid reliability issues [2][12] - The report notes a significant increase in capital expenditures and R&D budgets for hyperscalers, with an expected doubling by 2029 compared to 2025 [4] - The reinvestment rate for hyperscalers is projected to reach 87% in 2026 and 83% in 2027, indicating a squeeze on free cash flow for shareholders [4] Efficiency and Power Consumption - While new server generations are more efficient, the overall demand for computing power is growing faster, leading to higher energy consumption per server [7] - The report identifies 2026 as a critical year for observing whether inference servers will maintain lower power consumption or increase due to higher power server ratios [7] Pricing and Policy Implications - The concept of a "Green Reliability Premium" has emerged, with clean energy supply costs for data centers exceeding baseline prices by approximately $40 to $48 per MWh [8][9] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the costs associated with reliability and infrastructure will not be passed on to other electricity customers, leading to more contract designs to isolate these impacts [9] Labor Market Constraints - The report emphasizes that labor shortages, particularly in transmission and distribution roles, pose a significant constraint on meeting electricity demand growth [10] - An estimated 510,000 new jobs will be needed in the U.S. and Europe to meet electricity demand from 2023 to 2030, with a focus on training and recruitment [10] Broader Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the reliability theme in infrastructure investment is expected to continue, with annual capital expenditure growth exceeding $80 billion [12] - The performance of data center electricity supply chain stocks has outpaced broader market indices, indicating a shift in investor focus towards reliability and infrastructure [12]