卸任行长的观察：黑田东彦称日本已摆脱通缩，货币与财政政策亟需转向

Core Viewpoint - The former Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, advocates for continued interest rate hikes and tighter fiscal policies due to Japan's healthy economic state, while warning that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's large-scale spending plans may accelerate inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions and Predictions - Kuroda predicts that the Bank of Japan should implement approximately two interest rate hikes per year in 2026 and 2027, aiming to gradually raise the benchmark interest rate to a neutral level that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [1][2]. - Japan has reportedly moved past decades of deflation, making the normalization of monetary policy essential to support the yen and prevent economic overheating [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Divergence - There is a significant policy divergence between Kuroda and Kishida, with Kuroda expressing skepticism about the appropriateness of increased spending and tax cuts proposed by the current administration [1][3]. - Kishida's administration has increased spending and temporarily suspended an 8% consumption tax on food to alleviate rising living costs, which Kuroda warns could exacerbate inflation and raise bond yields [3]. Group 3: Currency and Inflation Concerns - Kuroda acknowledges that the yen is currently too weak, suggesting that interest rates could rise to between 1.5% and 1.75% in the coming years if economic growth continues [4][5]. - The depreciation of the yen is contributing to higher import costs, thereby intensifying overall inflationary pressures [4][5]. Group 4: Communication and Policy Implementation - Kuroda emphasizes that while monetary interventions can have short-term effects on the yen, they do not guarantee lasting impacts, advocating for a more subdued communication approach as the Bank of Japan seeks to normalize policies [5].