批发行情表现低迷 汽柴批零价差再创新高

Core Viewpoint - Since 2026, the international oil market has been influenced by three main factors: rising geopolitical risks, tightening supply, and resilient demand growth, leading to an overall upward trend in oil prices with minor corrections [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil has stabilized around $70 per barrel, while WTI has fluctuated near $66 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6% during the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Following the price adjustment, domestic refined oil prices saw an increase on the first day after the holiday, but oil prices closed lower for two consecutive days afterward due to insufficient market support [1] Group 2: Price Differentials - The domestic wholesale and retail price differentials have reached new highs, with gasoline price differentials hitting levels not seen since April 2025 and diesel price differentials reaching highs not seen since May 2024 [1] - The recent price adjustments have resulted in a pattern of "three increases and one pause" for refined oil this year, with cumulative increases of 465 yuan/ton for gasoline and 450 yuan/ton for diesel [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market dynamics for gasoline and diesel have shown significant divergence, with gasoline prices experiencing a steady increase while diesel prices have been primarily declining [3] - Gasoline demand has been supported by the Spring Festival holiday, but the ongoing impact of new energy sources continues to suppress gasoline consumption, limiting price increases [3] - Diesel demand has weakened entering the winter season, with traditional low demand periods for outdoor projects and infrastructure, leading to a bearish trend in diesel prices [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Geopolitical factors are expected to have a more significant impact on oil prices compared to economic and fundamental factors, particularly the outcomes of US-Iran nuclear talks [3] - The likelihood of a new round of price increases remains, with cautious optimism in market sentiment, while gasoline consumption is expected to decline post-holiday, putting downward pressure on gasoline prices [3] - Diesel prices are anticipated to have limited downside potential due to current low price levels and strengthening cost support, with price differentials expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [3]