创34个月新高！在岸、离岸人民币对美元双双升破6.87

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to improved external conditions, pressures on the US dollar, and the release of accumulated foreign exchange settlement demand from high export growth [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation Factors - The RMB has strengthened significantly, breaking key levels of 6.88 and 6.87, with the onshore RMB closing at 6.8672, up 177 points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since April 14, 2023 [1]. - The improvement in China-US trade relations since November 2025 has contributed to a favorable external environment, supporting the RMB's appreciation [1]. - The ongoing criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has increased pressure on the US dollar, contributing to the general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Settlement Demand - Recent data shows that the foreign exchange settlement surplus reached $99.93 billion and $88.76 billion in December 2025 and January 2026, respectively, ranking as the highest and third-highest monthly surpluses in history [3]. - The high sentiment in the offshore RMB market has also played a significant role in driving the RMB's strong performance, leading to the breaking of important thresholds [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China has maintained a policy of "basic stability" for the exchange rate, emphasizing the role of the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [3]. - Analysts expect the RMB to remain strong in the short term, with continued rapid export growth and high market sentiment, predicting limited chances for a significant rebound in the US dollar index [3]. - The chief economist at Guosheng Securities anticipates that the RMB will fluctuate between 6.8 and 7.1 against the US dollar this year, with an overall trend of stability and slight appreciation [4].