Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield from February 1-20, 2026, decreased by 23.82% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.3%. Overall production dropped by 22.24% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1-25 amounted to 922,649 tons, a decrease of 16.05% from 1,099,033 tons in the same period last month [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated a 12.29% reduction in palm oil production from February 1-20, with declines of 10.74% in Peninsular Malaysia, 15.23% in Sabah, 11.20% in Sarawak, and 14.19% in Borneo [1] Regulatory Developments - Indonesia urged the EU to comply with the WTO ruling regarding palm oil disputes to restore market access for Indonesian palm oil products. The deadline for the EU to adjust its policies was set for February 24, 2026 [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) indicated that tightening supply, improving demand, and stable U.S. soybean oil prices may support palm oil prices between 4,000 to 4,300 ringgit per ton in March, although global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports from China may limit price increases [2] Agricultural Forecasts - The USDA's Grain and Oilseed Outlook released on February 19 predicts an increase in soybean production and planting area for the 2026-2027 season. Soybean oil production for biofuel is expected to rise by approximately 17%. Overall U.S. soybean supply is projected to grow by 5% due to increased beginning stocks and production [3] - The USDA forecasts an increase of nearly 4 million acres in soybean planting area, reflecting higher profitability compared to other crops. Assuming normal weather conditions, the average yield is expected to be 53 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production increase of 188 million bushels to 4.45 billion bushels [3] Biofuel Policy Updates - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to submit the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) proposal to the White House for final review. The proposed RVO for the year may be significantly raised to between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, indicating a substantial increase from the 2025 target [3][6] - This strong policy signal is anticipated to lock in future demand for soybean oil and other major biofuel feedstocks, contributing to a sustained increase in U.S. soybean oil prices, which has led domestic soybean oil prices to rise [6]
Mhy20260225油脂晚评：豆油为何强劲领涨？