雀巢 2025 财年：提价见顶、中国失速，百年巨头启动激进瘦身转型

Core Insights - Nestlé Group reported a mixed performance for the fiscal year 2025, with total sales of 89.49 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decline of 2%, and net profit of 9.033 billion Swiss francs, down 17% year-on-year. However, the organic growth rate reached 3.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2024, indicating a recovery in growth momentum in the second half of the year [1][5][6] Performance Breakdown - The organic growth of 3.5% was primarily driven by pricing, contributing 2.8%, while actual internal growth was only 0.8%. This highlights the company's reliance on price increases to offset rising costs of raw materials like coffee and cocoa [1][6] - In the fourth quarter, the organic growth rate rose to 4%, with internal growth improving from 0.2% in the first half to 1.4% in the second half, reflecting the gradual effectiveness of strategic adjustments [1][6] Category and Regional Analysis - Solid and liquid beverages and confectionery categories achieved organic growth rates of 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively, becoming key growth drivers. The pet care segment grew steadily by 2.2%, while prepared foods and seasonings saw a slight decline of 0.4% due to a sluggish U.S. frozen food market. Dairy, ice cream, and bottled water businesses maintained stable growth [2][6] - Regionally, Europe led with an organic growth rate of 4.3%, emerging markets grew by 5.4%, and developed markets saw a growth of 2.3%. In contrast, the Greater China region reported an organic growth decline of 6.4%, significantly dragging down the overall performance of the group [2][6] Challenges in Greater China - The decline in Greater China is identified as the most significant challenge for Nestlé in 2025. Factors include shrinking offline supermarket traffic, ineffective distribution models, high inventory leading to price wars, and a recall incident affecting the infant formula segment, which exacerbated supply chain and quality control issues [3][7] - The management indicated a shift from a distribution-driven model to one driven by consumer demand, aiming to reduce inventory and rebuild channel confidence through restructuring [3][7] Strategic Adjustments - In response to growth challenges, Nestlé's new management team has initiated a comprehensive and aggressive strategic adjustment, focusing on core areas and divesting low-efficiency segments. Resources will be concentrated on coffee, pet care, nutrition, and food and snacks [3][7] - The company is in negotiations to sell its remaining ice cream business and plans to initiate the divestiture of its bottled water and premium beverage segments in early 2026, with completion expected by 2027. The bottled water business has a profit margin of only 9.1%, significantly below the overall group level, making divestiture a key move to enhance asset returns [3][7] Future Outlook - For 2026, Nestlé has provided an organic growth guidance of 3%-4%. The transition from price-driven growth to a focus on core quality and efficiency, along with asset simplification, reflects the broader challenges faced by global fast-moving consumer goods companies amid inflation, consumer differentiation, and intensified local competition [4][8]