3 6 Ke·2026-02-25 10:51Core Viewpoint - Tungsten has experienced a significant price surge, with a year-on-year increase of over 220% in 2025 and a continued upward trend in early 2026, overshadowing gold's market position [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - The tungsten market is facing a supply crunch due to strict quota controls, with China holding over 80% of global tungsten supply and reducing its mining quotas by 6.5% in 2025 [7]. - The average grade of domestic tungsten ore has declined from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2024, increasing extraction costs and difficulties [8]. - New overseas tungsten mining projects are insufficient to meet global demand, with only about 5,000 tons of new capacity expected by 2026, and export restrictions from China further exacerbate supply issues [10]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for tungsten is being driven by technological advancements in sectors like photovoltaics and AI, with tungsten wire for solar cells expected to see a demand increase from 8,300 tons in 2024 to 16,000 tons in 2025, a growth of 198% [13]. - The AI server market is also contributing to demand, with high-precision tungsten tools being essential for advanced PCB manufacturing [15]. Company Performance - Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten High-Tech are the leading companies in the tungsten industry, with Xiamen Tungsten focusing on diversified operations and China Tungsten High-Tech specializing in deep integration of the tungsten supply chain [19][20]. - In 2025, Xiamen Tungsten reported a net profit of 2.311 billion yuan, a 3508% increase, while China Tungsten High-Tech's net profit surged by 407.52% in the same period [22]. Market Outlook - The tungsten price is expected to remain high in 2026, with a projected supply-demand gap increasing from 18,500 tons in 2026 to 19,200 tons by 2028, driven by sustained demand from the photovoltaic and AI sectors [23].