6670亿美元狂潮！巨头AI开支逼近顶点，自由现金流或触底反弹

Core Insights - The capital expenditure driven by artificial intelligence is reshaping the balance sheets of large tech companies, with projected capital expenditures for hyperscale cloud companies nearing $667 billion in 2026, accounting for approximately 92% of their operating cash flow, leading to a significant reduction in stock buybacks and a drop in free cash flow yield to historical lows [1][2][3] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - Hyperscale cloud companies are expected to have a record capital expenditure of $667 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 62%, slightly lower than the 73% increase in 2025, indicating a historical rarity in absolute scale [2] - Market expectations for capital expenditures have been continuously revised upward, with analysts increasing the consensus forecast for 2026 capital expenditures by $127 billion and for 2027 by $162 billion since the fourth quarter earnings season, reflecting strong confidence in the sustainability of AI investments [2] Group 2: Impact on Shareholder Returns - The surge in capital expenditures is directly impacting shareholder returns, with a projected 15% decline in total stock buybacks for hyperscale cloud companies in 2025, and the proportion of buybacks in cash flow dropping from 43% at the beginning of 2023 to approximately 16% currently, a decline of over 60% [3] - This shift indicates a clear prioritization of capital allocation from shareholder returns to infrastructure development during the peak of the AI investment cycle, posing significant pressure on investors reliant on buybacks for earnings per share growth and stock performance [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the growth rate of capital expenditures for hyperscale cloud companies will begin to slow in the second half of 2026, with year-on-year growth expected to be around 70% to 75%, while quarterly growth will show a noticeable deceleration [4] - The anticipated slowdown in capital expenditure growth will provide visibility for investors regarding the potential bottoming out of free cash flow, allowing for a return to valuation based on earnings, with current trading at a 24 times forward P/E ratio, placing it in the 14th percentile over the past decade [5]