Ge Long Hui·2026-02-25 14:12Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is expected to outperform other commodities like gold and lithium in 2025-2026, with tungsten prices having already increased by over 220% in 2025, surpassing gold's performance [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of February 25, 2025, the price of tungsten iron in Shanghai has exceeded 1.0225 million yuan per ton, a 3.7-fold increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - The price of black tungsten concentrate reached 705,000 yuan per ton in 2026, up 53.26% year-to-date, while ammonium paratungstate (APT) is priced at 1.05 million yuan per ton, up 56.72%, both hitting historical highs [5]. - China's tungsten reserves account for 52% of the global total, and its production represents 83%, making it the leading tungsten supplier globally [7]. - From 2025, China will tighten tungsten resource management, leading to a significant reduction in supply, with the first batch of tungsten concentrate mining quotas set at 58,000 tons, a 6.5% decrease from the previous year [7]. - Export controls on tungsten products will further tighten global supply, with a projected 27.5% decrease in tungsten exports in 2025 [7][8]. - The slow release of overseas tungsten production capacity will not compensate for the supply reduction from China, with new non-Chinese tungsten concentrate capacity expected to be less than 5,000 tons by 2026 [8]. Demand Growth - Tungsten's applications are expanding beyond traditional sectors into high-end fields such as renewable energy, military, and semiconductors [10]. - Key drivers of demand growth include photovoltaic tungsten wire and PCB drill bits, with strong demand from military and semiconductor sectors [11]. - Since September 2025, tungsten concentrate inventories have been depleting, leading to tight spot supply and increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [12]. Industry Profitability - The rise in tungsten prices is improving profitability across the industry, with significant benefits for resource-rich and high-end processing companies [15]. - Companies with their own tungsten resources, such as Zhangyuan Tungsten, are experiencing substantial profit increases, with stock prices rising over 136% this year [17]. - High-end processing companies, like Zhongtung High-tech, are also benefiting from price increases and strong demand for high-end tungsten products, with stock prices up over 112% [20]. Long-term Outlook - The ongoing rise in tungsten prices is expected to become a long-term norm rather than a short-term market speculation [14]. - The strategic value of tungsten is increasing amid global competition for strategic mineral resources, with China holding a dominant position in the tungsten market [25]. - The valuation logic for tungsten has shifted, with its dual attributes of being a strategic resource and high-end manufacturing material likely to enhance its valuation further [23][24].