春节期间楼市成交量突现翻倍式增长，房价的玩笑这次开大了

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the real estate market in Beijing, highlighting a significant increase in transaction volumes during the Spring Festival compared to the previous year, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1][2] - The transaction volumes during the Spring Festival from January 1 to January 6, 2026, were significantly higher than the same period in 2025, suggesting a strong market response to improved sentiment [1] - Historical comparisons are made to the Spring Festival of 2023, where similar increases in transaction volumes were observed, but the subsequent market trend turned downward, emphasizing that expectations alone do not dictate housing prices [2][3] Group 2 - The article examines the monetary aspect of the real estate market, noting that while housing prices in Beijing have returned to 2016 levels, the M2 money supply has increased significantly from 149 trillion to 340 trillion, a growth of 128% [5][6] - It argues against the notion that "excessive money supply leads to rising housing prices," stating that the majority of money supply growth (88%) comes from loans taken by residents and enterprises, which ensures that new money has corresponding goods as a backing [26][27] - The current level of new residential loans is at its lowest in nearly a decade, indicating insufficient fundamental support for housing price increases despite improved market expectations [35][37] Group 3 - The article concludes that the increase in housing prices is a cyclical phenomenon, where short-term borrowing can lead to price increases, but the eventual repayment of loans requires the creation of goods, which can counteract inflationary pressures [27][28] - It highlights the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of borrowing and repayment in the housing market, suggesting that collective behavior in borrowing can create significant market cycles [29][30] - The article also notes that while there are signs of improved market sentiment, the fundamental indicators do not yet support a reversal in housing prices, necessitating further observation of market trends [37]