What to Expect Ahead of Millicom International's Q4 Earnings Release?

Core Insights - Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, with revenue estimates at $1.56 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year over year, and earnings estimates at $1.05 per share, indicating a 425% year-over-year growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - TIGO's earnings have missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 23.21% [2]. - Over the past year, TIGO's shares have increased by 146.1%, outperforming the Zacks Wireless-Non-US industry's growth of 60.1% [2]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - TIGO is likely to benefit from strong commercial execution in both consumer and business segments [4]. - The mobile business has seen a 5.5% year-over-year increase in mobile service revenues, driven by ARPU expansion in the prepaid category and migration from prepaid to postpaid [5]. - B2B digital services, including cloud, cybersecurity, and SD-WAN, have expanded approximately 35% year over year, contributing to an overall digital revenue growth of 10% [6]. Market Position and Acquisitions - TIGO's recent acquisitions, including a 67.5% controlling stake in Telefonica's Colombia Telecomunicaciones S.A. E.S.P. and operations in Chile, are expected to drive growth [8]. - The acquisitions of Telefonica's businesses in Uruguay and Ecuador are projected to add approximately $736 million in annual revenues and $254 million in adjusted EBITDA, enhancing TIGO's presence in Latin America [9]. Strategic Outlook - TIGO aims for a leverage target of below 2.5x and a 2025 equity free cash flow target of approximately $750 million, despite facing currency headwinds in Bolivia and challenges in Costa Rica [10][11]. - The company is also progressing on the EPM privatization process and the Coltel acquisition, with both expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 [10].