Investors in Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Jan 16, 2026 $25.00 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.What is Implied Volatility?Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the o ...

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characte ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, with the aim of buying high and selling higher, capitalizing on established price movements [1] Company Overview: Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO) - TIGO currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook based on historical performance metrics [4] Performance Metrics - TIGO shares have increased by 6% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Wireless Non-US industry, which rose by 1.36% [6] - Over the past month, TIGO's price change is 12.68%, significantly higher than the industry's 2.3% [6] - In the last quarter, TIGO shares rose by 12.42%, and over the past year, they have surged by 105.25%, compared to the S&P 500's increases of 3.89% and 13.58%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - TIGO's average 20-day trading volume is 899,439 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for TIGO has increased, while none have decreased, raising the consensus estimate from $2.68 to $7.35 [10] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have moved upwards with no downward revisions, indicating positive earnings momentum [10] Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, TIGO is positioned as a 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a compelling investment opportunity [12]

Core Points - Liberty Latin America and Millicom's proposed transaction to combine operations in Costa Rica has been rejected by the country's telecommunications regulator, SUTEL [1][3] - Both companies believe the transaction would have enhanced technology investment, market competitiveness, and the expansion of next-generation networks in Costa Rica [2][3] - The decision was unexpected as both companies had maintained ongoing dialogue with SUTEL and believed they had addressed potential concerns [3] Company Overview - Liberty Latin America Ltd. operates in the telecommunications sector, focusing on mobile and wireless services [1][6] - Millicom International Cellular S.A. is also a key player in the telecommunications industry, with a focus on mobile services [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - Millicom International Cellular S.A. has resolved a U.S. Department of Justice investigation regarding historical improper payments made by its subsidiary, Comunicaciones Celulares S.A. (Comcel), to Guatemalan government officials, with a focus on the company's commitment to ethical standards and compliance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investigation Background - The investigation was first disclosed in May 2022, with Millicom having voluntarily self-reported alleged improper payments in 2015 and fully cooperating with authorities [2][3]. - Millicom lacked operational control over Comcel until acquiring full ownership in November 2021, which limited visibility into Comcel's actions [5]. Compliance and Remediation Efforts - Following the self-disclosure, Millicom invested significantly in enhancing its global corporate compliance program, which was implemented in Guatemala after full ownership of Comcel [4][6]. - Major remediation steps included the exit of personnel involved in misconduct at Comcel [6]. Resolution Details - The investigation concluded with a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) between Comcel and the DOJ, lasting two years instead of the standard three, due to Millicom's extensive cooperation and compliance efforts [7]. - Comcel will pay a $60 million fine and forfeit approximately $58.2 million in benefits from the improper payments, with the fine reflecting a 50% discount off the minimum penalty range under U.S. Sentencing Guidelines [8]. Company Commitment - Millicom has consistently acted as a responsible and transparent company, emphasizing its commitment to high ethical standards and operational transparency since gaining control of Comcel [9]. - The company aims to continue its focus on connecting people and driving digital inclusion in the markets it serves [9].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $4,166 million, a decrease of 4.8% compared to $4,376 million in the same period of 2024[5] - Operating profit increased to $1,170 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $968 million in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of 20.9%[5] - Net profit for the period reached $1,096 million, significantly up from $217 million in the prior year, marking a year-over-year increase of 404.6%[6] - Earnings per share (basic) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $6.35, compared to $1.29 in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 392.3%[5] - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,580 million, a slight decrease from $1,588 million in the same period of 2024[50] - The net profit attributable to equity holders for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,064 million, significantly up from $221 million in the same period of 2024[56] - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1.17, compared to $0.30 for the same period in 2024[56] - Q3 2025 revenue was $1.42 billion, a decrease of 0.7% year-over-year, while organic growth was 3.0%[96] - Operating profit increased by 30.1% to $390 million, and Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $695 million, up 18.7%[96] - Net profit attributable to company owners was $195 million, including approximately $138 million from infrastructure transactions[97] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, amounted to $15,590 million, an increase from $13,737 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 13.5%[9] - Non-current liabilities rose to $8,916 million as of September 30, 2025, from $7,050 million as of December 31, 2024, reflecting an increase of 26.5%[9] - The total debt and financing increased to $6,260 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $5,815 million at the end of 2024[77] - The Group's total liabilities reached $784 million as of September 30, 2025, significantly higher than $205 million at the end of 2024[63] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company generated net cash provided by operating activities of $1,257 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $1,149 million in the same period of 2024, a growth of 9.4%[11] - An interim dividend of $1.00 per share was approved, amounting to approximately $172 million, paid on January 10, 2025[53] - The company plans to resume regular cash dividends, proposing a total dividend of $3.00 per share payable in four equal installments starting July 15, 2025[54] - Equity free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $243 million, reflecting an increase of $98 million year-to-date compared to the same period last year[99] - Millicom targets 2025 equity free cash flow of around $750 million and year-end leverage below 2.5x[100] Acquisitions and Investments - The company has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Telefonica's controlling 67.5% equity stake in Coltel for a purchase price of $400 million, subject to adjustments[23] - Millicom committed to present an offer in EPM's Law 226 sale process, with a total consideration of approximately $520 million for Tigo-UNE[24] - The acquisition of Telefónica Móviles del Uruguay S.A. was announced for an enterprise value of $440 million[27] - The acquisition of Telefónica's telecommunications operations in Ecuador is valued at $380 million, pending regulatory approvals[28] - Millicom completed the acquisition of 100% of Telefonica Moviles del Uruguay S.A. for an enterprise value of $440 million[89] - Millicom completed the acquisition of 100% of Telefónica's telecommunications operations in Ecuador for an enterprise value of $380 million[90] Shareholder Actions - Millicom repurchased 4,216,397 shares for a total amount of $119 million during the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025[14] - The company reported retained profits of $2,835 million as of September 30, 2025, with $630 million not distributable to equity holders[13] Operational Highlights - The company completed the sale of Lati Operations, contributing $742 million to profit before taxes for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[5] - Millicom operates in nine countries across Latin America, focusing on enhancing service revenue and Adjusted EBITDA as key performance indicators[42] - The joint venture in Honduras repatriated cash of $69 million during the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025[58] - The equity accounted net assets of the joint venture in Honduras totaled $337 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $373 million at the end of 2024[58] - The company had $148 million payable to the Honduras joint venture as of September 30, 2025, primarily consisting of advances and cash pool balances[59] - Millicom's share of the results for the Honduras joint venture for the period was $40 million, with a closing balance of $527 million as of September 30, 2025[60] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, totaled $496 million, an increase from $447 million in the same period of 2024[48] - Capital expenditures for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $179 million, compared to $188 million in the same period of 2024[50] - During the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, Millicom added property, plant, and equipment for $407 million, compared to $355 million in the same period of 2024[64] Regulatory and Legal Matters - The merger petition between Tigo Costa Rica and Liberty Latin America was rejected by the telecommunications regulator, and Millicom is appealing this decision[34] - An adjustment of $188 million was recorded due to the adoption of amendments to IAS 21, impacting the financial statements for the nine-month period[22] Other Financial Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, was $2,275 million, compared to $2,271 million for the same period in 2024[45] - Adjusted EBITDA for the reportable segments for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,275 million, compared to $2,238 million for the same period in 2024[51] - The Group's interest and other financial expenses totaled $508 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $550 million in the same period of 2024[79] - The Group's share of tax risks exposure is estimated at $307 million, with provisions of $59 million recorded[83] Asset Management - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,663 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $699 million at the beginning of the year, indicating a rise of 138.9%[12] - As of September 30, 2025, total assets held for sale decreased to $31 million from $627 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to the sale of mobile network sharing agreements and towers[35] - New Right-of-Use assets and Lease Liabilities recognized by Millicom's subsidiaries amount to approximately $740 million following the transactions with SBA and Atis[33] - Tigo Colombia derecognized right-of-use assets and liabilities of $76 million and $104 million, respectively, resulting in a gain of $28 million recognized in the consolidated statement of profit or loss[39] - Spectrum license assets and liabilities derecognized by Tigo Colombia amounted to $574 million and $680 million, respectively, with a net impact of $50 million recognized as a reduction of spectrum intangible assets[40]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, service revenue totaled $1.34 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.5%, primarily due to a $74 million negative impact from IAS 21 application in Bolivia [12][14] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $695 million, with an all-time high margin of 48.9%, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.8% [13][17] - Equity-free cash flow rose by 18.1% year-over-year, totaling $638 million for the first nine months of 2025 [14][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mobile service revenue grew 5.5% year-over-year, driven by ARPU expansion in prepaid and a 14% increase in postpaid customers [4][12] - Home business service revenue was flat year-over-year, a significant improvement from a nearly 5% decline a year ago, with 60,000 new customers added [5][12] - B2B service revenue reached $231 million, up 5.3% year-over-year, with digital services growing by 10% [5][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Colombia's service revenue expanded 6.5% year-over-year to $364 million, with postpaid customers increasing by 12% [15][17] - Guatemala's local currency service revenue grew 3.6% year-over-year, reaching $366 million, driven by mobile strategy and customer base management [15][17] - In Panama, service revenue remained flat at $170 million, with a 15% increase in postpaid customers [15][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed acquisitions in Uruguay and Ecuador, enhancing its regional footprint and earnings quality [8][9] - The focus remains on maintaining leverage below 2.5x while integrating new acquisitions and pursuing operational efficiencies [3][22] - The company aims to deliver continued top-line growth and sustainable margin expansion, despite challenges from currency devaluation and legal settlements [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the $750 million equity-free cash flow target for 2025, despite external challenges [2][23] - The company remains optimistic about the ongoing integration of Ecuador and Uruguay, expecting to unlock meaningful synergies [8][9] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining operational focus and efficiency in light of regulatory challenges in Costa Rica [10][26] Other Important Information - The company recorded a $118 million provision related to an ongoing DOJ investigation, reflecting expected financial impacts [11][12] - The sale of tower companies in El Salvador and Honduras was completed for approximately $975 million, marking a successful conclusion to the infrastructure monetization plan [9][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the leverage impact of the Ecuador and Uruguay transactions? - Current leverage is 2.09, expected to normalize to around 2.3 after accounting for the acquisitions [24] Question: Will the burden of spectrum renewal payments fall on Millicom? - The license renewal payment of approximately $115 million was paid by Telefónica, but there will be additional 5G auction costs expected in 2026 [25] Question: What is the future course of action in Costa Rica if the appeal is rejected? - The company plans to refocus on its operational model and invest in infrastructure while appealing the regulatory decision [26][28] Question: What is the outlook for CapEx in 2026? - The company expects to maintain CapEx around $700 million, focusing on demand-driven investments [29][30] Question: How is the competitive environment evolving in Guatemala? - The company is actively managing competition through targeted strategies and investments, resulting in stable performance [45][46]

Core Insights - Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO) reported quarterly earnings of $0.34 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.55 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -38.18% [1][2] - The company posted revenues of $1.42 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.14%, but down from $1.43 billion year-over-year [2] - The stock has increased approximately 84.1% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, Millicom has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.55 on revenues of $1.42 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.26 on revenues of $5.57 billion [7] Market Outlook - The company's future stock performance will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the trends in earnings estimate revisions [3][4] - The Zacks Rank for Millicom is currently 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Wireless Non-US industry, to which Millicom belongs, is currently in the top 28% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA reached $695 million, demonstrating a year-over-year growth of 18.7%[68] - The Adjusted EBITDA margin hit a record 48.9%[18,68] - Equity Free Cash Flow (EFCF) for the first 9 months of 2025 was $638 million, an increase of $98 million compared to the same period in 2024[17,70,73] - Service revenue increased to $1344 million, a 0.5% increase compared to Q3 2024[68] Customer Growth - Postpaid net additions reached 293,000[17] - Home net additions totaled 60,000[18] - Mobile postpaid customers grew by 14% year-over-year[21] - Home HFC/FTTH customers increased by 5.4% year-over-year[25] Strategic Initiatives - Millicom incorporated Ecuador and Uruguay, diversifying its LATAM footprint[53] - Revenue from Ecuador is $489 million and Adjusted EBITDA is $161 million[54] - Revenue from Uruguay is $246 million and Adjusted EBITDA is $93 million[56] Financial Position - Net debt stood at $4627 million[90,115] - Leverage ratio decreased to 2.09x[18,90,115] Country-Specific Performance - Colombia's Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 4.9 percentage points[35] - Guatemala's mobile service revenue grew by 20% in local currency[41] - Panama achieved a record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 52.2%[49,51]

Core Insights - Millicom reported strong operational and financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in adjusted EBITDA and net profit [5][6] - The company achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $695 million, reflecting a margin of 48.9%, and a notable increase in operating profit [4][6] - Millicom's revenue growth was driven by mobile subscriber additions and ARPU expansion, with a year-over-year increase of 3.5% in service revenue [6][8] Financial Highlights - Q3 2025 revenue was $1.42 billion, a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to Q3 2024, but organic growth was 3.0% [4] - Operating profit for Q3 2025 reached $390 million, up 30.1% from the previous year [4] - Net profit attributable to company owners was $195 million, a significant increase from $51 million in Q3 2024 [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $695 million, an 18.7% increase year-over-year [4] - Equity free cash flow for the quarter was $243 million, reflecting a year-to-date increase of $98 million compared to the same period last year [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on executing its strategic plan, which includes advancing inorganic growth initiatives and improving operational efficiency [6] - Millicom aims to achieve an equity free cash flow target of around $750 million for 2025, with a year-end leverage below 2.5x [9] - The company declared an additional interim dividend of $2.5 per share in August, totaling approximately $420 million [8]