硬抗三天后，特朗普面对现实：全球关税战落幕，中国预判太准了

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling declared the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs unconstitutional, shifting the authority to impose tariffs back to Congress [3] Group 1: Legal and Policy Changes - The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the power to impose tariffs belongs to Congress, not the President, indicating that Trump's actions were unconstitutional [3] - Following the ruling, Trump signed a new executive order invoking the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a temporary 10% tariff on global goods, which was quickly raised to 15% [3] - The new tariff under the Trade Act has a cap of 15% and a maximum duration of 150 days, significantly reducing the scope of the previous IEEPA tariffs [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The potential refund from the cessation of tariffs could reach $175 billion, which is over 20% of the projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 [3] - The cessation of tariffs is expected to increase short-term liquidity pressures for the U.S. Treasury [3] Group 3: International Reactions - Western allies like the UK and Australia, who initially compromised with Trump, are facing significant economic losses as their previous concessions are rendered ineffective [5] - Southeast Asian economies, previously targeted by high tariffs, stand to benefit from the new uniform 15% tariff, effectively lowering their tax burden [5] - The average tariff rate in Asia is projected to decrease from approximately 20% to 17%, with China's average tariff on U.S. goods dropping from 32% to 24% [5] Group 4: Future Trade Dynamics - The ruling may lead to a new cycle of trade negotiations, as the U.S. trade policy appears to be caught in a loop of being challenged and modified [5] - The independent functioning of the U.S. judicial system is highlighted, but unilateral protectionism is expected to continue in a more targeted manner [5] - The upcoming negotiations with China may be influenced by the $175 billion refund and the newly imposed 15% tariff, as both sides reassess their positions [5]