节后人民币对美元汇率较快升值，未来走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar marks a significant trend, with the currency breaking the 6.87 threshold, reaching its highest level since April 2023, driven by improved external conditions and changes in US monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On February 25, both onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar surpassed the 6.87 mark, with onshore RMB at 6.8669 and offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.8617 [1]. - Since the beginning of February, the RMB has appreciated nearly 300 basis points against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore rates increasing by over 1% [1]. - The RMB's middle rate against the US dollar was reported at 6.9231, an increase of 93 basis points on the same day [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The stabilization of China-US trade relations since November 2025 has contributed to the RMB's strong performance, reflecting an overall improvement in the external environment [2]. - The recent criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has put pressure on the US dollar, leading to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [2]. - The release of accumulated settlement demand from high export growth has accelerated following the RMB's continuous appreciation against the US dollar [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stance of "basic stability" for the RMB exchange rate, emphasizing its role as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [4]. - Experts caution against betting on unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, highlighting the need to monitor changes in settlement demand, fundamental expectations, and the direction of the US dollar [5]. - It is anticipated that the RMB will fluctuate around the 7.0 to 7.2 range against the US dollar in 2026, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth [5].