Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-26 01:21Group 1 - Zimbabwe has suspended the export of lithium concentrate and ore to encourage mining companies to establish processing operations within the country, effective immediately until further notice [1] - Zimbabwe holds one of the largest lithium reserves in Africa, estimated at 126 million tons, and aims to increase local economic benefits from its mineral resources [1] - The U.S. Geological Survey projects Zimbabwe's lithium production to reach 28,000 tons by 2025, ranking just behind Argentina, China, and Chile [1] Group 2 - UBS believes the market has entered a third lithium price supercycle, with a significant supply-demand gap supporting prices well above market consensus [2] - The forecast price for lithium spodumene has been raised by 74% to $3,131 per ton, while lithium carbonate is adjusted to $26,000 per ton, driven by the surge in electric vehicle and energy storage demand [2] - Global lithium demand is expected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030 [2] Group 3 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) holds a 50% stake in the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Zimbabwe, which has significant scale and processing capabilities [3] - Ganfeng's strong control over upstream resources and its ability to quickly adapt to new regulations could benefit from the supply contraction and resulting lithium price rebound [3] - Tianqi Lithium (09696) has limited direct exposure in Zimbabwe but stands to gain from macro benefits due to rising lithium prices, as the export ban will reduce global marginal supply [3] - Zijin Mining (02899) aims for a lithium carbonate production target of 120,000 tons by 2026, with plans to increase this to between 270,000 and 320,000 tons by 2028 [3]