全球并购热潮延续至2026年 AI驱动交易升温

Core Insights - Despite initial tariff policy suppressing market activity in early 2025, global M&A deal value surged nearly 40% year-on-year, reaching $4.9 trillion, surpassing the previous record of $4.86 trillion in 2021, with both deal count and value hitting new highs [2] - Optimism for M&A prospects in 2026 remains strong, with 80% of surveyed executives planning to maintain or increase deal sizes, driven by improved macro conditions and a backlog of private equity and venture capital exits [2] - The current global M&A market faces one of the tightest financing environments in decades, with capital allocated for M&A expected to drop to a 30-year low, as companies prioritize dividends, stock buybacks, and R&D over acquisitions [3] Group 1 - Global M&A activity is being accelerated by central bank interest rate cuts, rising asset valuations, and increased investments in artificial intelligence [2] - Private equity transactions account for approximately 40% of global M&A, with private credit and sovereign wealth funds emerging as significant sources of capital [3] - The private credit market, currently valued at around $2.1 trillion, is expected to double by 2030, providing more funding for large transactions [3] Group 2 - Artificial intelligence is identified as the core driver of the current M&A wave, with mega-deals (over $5 billion) contributing over 73% of deal value growth in 2025 [3] - The demand for data centers, energy, and semiconductors is surging, prompting companies to acquire technology capabilities through M&A [4] - Significant capital investments in the AI sector may temporarily divert funds and suppress M&A activity in the short term, but will reshape industry dynamics and M&A logic in the long run [4]