方正证券：定期寿险征收增值税或提价 1.25%预定利率分红险预热

Group 1 - The insurance industry maintains a recommended rating, with A-share insurance companies' average static/dynamic PEV at 0.80x/0.66x, indicating low historical levels and limited downside risk [1] - The investment outlook is improving due to a recovering equity market and gradual rise in long-term interest rates, which are expected to enhance investment returns for insurance companies [1] - Factors such as the recovery in savings insurance sales, the release of demand for high-end medical insurance due to medical reform, and adjustments in preset interest rates are anticipated to drive NBV growth [1] Group 2 - The introduction of a 6% VAT on term life insurance premiums starting in 2026 is expected to increase prices by 5%-10% as companies adjust their pricing strategies to account for this new cost [2] - The aging population, advancements in medical technology, and tax policy adjustments are projected to lead to a continuous increase in premiums for protection-type products [3] - The market has seen the launch of dividend insurance products with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.25%, indicating a trend towards lower preset interest rates in the insurance market [4] Group 3 - The shift towards dividend insurance and the reduction in preset interest rates are likely to encourage insurance companies to increase their allocation to equity assets [5] - The growth in premium income is expected to enhance the willingness of insurance funds to invest in equities, supported by a sustained bull market in equities that will improve investment returns [5] - The insurance sector's profitability is anticipated to improve, driving valuations towards a historical PEV of 1.0x [5]