Ge Long Hui·2026-02-26 02:39Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Hong Kong government's new budget will raise the stamp duty rate on residential properties valued over HKD 100 million to 6.5% [1] - The bank estimates that such properties will account for 0.3% of total transaction volume but 8% of total transaction value by 2025, predicting a negative impact on companies like Wharf Holdings [1] - Other companies exposed to similar property risks include Hang Lung Properties, Cheung Kong, Henderson Land, and Sun Hung Kai Properties [1] Group 2 - For commercial land, there will be no new commercial land sales for the second consecutive year, which is expected to support the office and retail property markets through improved supply-demand conditions [1] - Talent programs have attracted 270,000 people to Hong Kong, with over 100,000 coming through the high-skilled talent visa program, creating additional housing demand [1] Group 3 - The government is seeking to include Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the mutual market access scheme and introduce amendments to facilitate the privatization or restructuring of REITs, potentially exempting stamp duty for REITs transferring non-residential properties [1] - This move is seen as a positive factor for Link REIT [1] Group 4 - Overall, Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive view on the recovery of Hong Kong property prices, expecting a 10% increase this year, with no tightening measures anticipated within the year [1] - Hong Kong property stocks have risen approximately 20% to 50% year-to-date, indicating that some upside potential has already been absorbed [1] - The upcoming earnings season may bring volatility due to declining profit margins and weak earnings outlook for 2026 [1]