美伊冲突风险叠加“有人垄断1/3运力”，全球油轮费率飙升创六年新高

Core Viewpoint - The global Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market is experiencing its most severe rate shock in six years, driven by a combination of war risk premiums and an unprecedented wave of fleet consolidation, pushing freight rates to historical highs and impacting physical crude oil prices and the entire tanker market [1]. Group 1: Freight Rate Surge - Saudi Arabia's national shipping company Bahri recently chartered five VLCCs at a daily rate of $200,000, marking the highest level recorded in six years, with one vessel, DHT Jaguar, achieving a rate of $208,000 per day [1]. - The market is pricing in a 47% probability of the U.S. striking Iran before March 15, reflecting heightened concerns over the risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is being factored into freight rates and Brent crude futures, currently above $70 per barrel [1][7]. Group 2: Market Concentration - The South Korean Sinokor Group has rapidly acquired or chartered a significant number of vessels, controlling approximately 120 VLCCs, which represents about one-third of the global tradable VLCC fleet [3][9]. - This concentration of control is reshaping the global tanker pricing mechanism, as noted by SFL Corp's CEO, who highlighted that a single entity or group controls a substantial portion of the available VLCC fleet [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The Strait of Hormuz has re-emerged as a critical geopolitical risk factor in the global energy market, with the potential for military action by the U.S. against Iran contributing to the war risk premium being incorporated into VLCC rental quotes [4][6]. - The expectation of military action has led to a rapid increase in war risk insurance premiums, which are now reflected in VLCC rental prices [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple fundamental drivers are contributing to the rising VLCC freight rates, including the shift of Venezuelan oil from "dark fleet" transport to compliant vessels, increased OPEC+ production, and Indian refineries' demand for Middle Eastern crude over Russian oil [10]. - VLCC benchmark daily earnings have surpassed $120,000, increasing more than fourfold in the past month, marking the strongest start to a year for oil tanker earnings in over 30 years [10].