十个月连涨在望，白银被推上贸易避险“C位”

Core Viewpoint - Silver continues to outperform gold this year, becoming a preferred "hedge asset" for investors, with prices expected to record a consecutive 10-month increase, marking the longest monthly gain on record [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of Thursday, spot silver is hovering around $88.90 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4.3% this month [4] - The silver market is experiencing a supply deficit, projected to reach 67 million ounces by 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficit [7] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Trade tensions are reigniting investor demand for hedge assets amid global economic slowdown and geopolitical polarization [5] - Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and security concerns in Mexico are enhancing the appeal of precious metals [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Silver is characterized as a "dual-purpose metal" with both investment and industrial uses, making it more sensitive to economic cycles compared to gold [5] - The market is transitioning from being news-driven to being fundamentally driven, influenced by monetary policy, inflation expectations, and dollar dynamics [7][8] - Current expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, with a potential for approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts for the remainder of the year, making the monetary environment more favorable for precious metals [7] Group 4: Speculative Behavior - Speculative behavior from Asian traders is contributing to extreme volatility in precious metals, highlighting the role of short-term liquidity in amplifying price fluctuations [7] - The current market is not experiencing a price bubble but is undergoing a "speculative cycle" amid ongoing supply shortages and rising industrial demand [8]