美国砸5万亿搞AI，中国却靠“省钱”逆袭？2026年格局定了

Core Insights - The report from Barclays titled "AI: East vs. West" analyzes the competitive landscape of AI between the US and China, highlighting that the US currently leads due to its financial resources and early advantages, while China is rapidly catching up with its cost-effective and highly applicable AI solutions [1][4]. Market Status - The AI market is experiencing a dichotomy where the US is "on fire" with soaring valuations and performance, while China is "recovering" from previous downturns, particularly in the tech sector [3][11]. - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has expanded from 15.3x at the end of 2022 to 21.7x, driven largely by AI advancements [13][56]. Competitive Dynamics - The report categorizes the AI industry into three layers: Application, Model, and Compute, with distinct strategies from both countries in each layer [1][12]. - In the application layer, US AI applications have a broader global reach, while Chinese applications are predominantly domestic, with DeepSeek and Doubao leading in user numbers but lacking significant overseas penetration [10][40]. - The model layer shows that Chinese companies are adopting an open-source approach, significantly reducing costs, with DeepSeek's latest model priced at approximately 3% of GPT-5.2's cost, while US companies maintain a more closed, proprietary model strategy [3][10][49]. - In the compute layer, US tech giants are expected to spend over $500 billion in capital expenditures, significantly outpacing Chinese firms, which are constrained by access to high-end chips [3][29][38]. Investment Implications - The competition between the US and China in AI is expected to lead to more affordable and accessible AI applications for consumers, benefiting the overall market [2][4]. - Chinese AI is no longer viewed merely as a "follower" but is demonstrating unique strengths in application deployment and cost management, indicating a shift in the competitive narrative [2][4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while the US may maintain a short-term lead in AI capabilities, China's long-term outlook remains strong due to its innovative approaches and large domestic market [4][5]. - The ongoing competition is likely to evolve from a focus on technological superiority to one centered on practical applications that can transform everyday life and work [2][4].