花旗、德银相继撤退，一笔“确定性交易”开始瓦解

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a shift as Wall Street's "certainty trades" are loosening, with strategists suggesting that the recent steepening of the yield curve has gone too far following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's election victory [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Citigroup and Deutsche Bank have exited their previous bets on short-term Japanese government bond yields rising faster than long-term yields, signaling a shift towards a more favorable environment for a steepening yield curve [1] - The market has reacted to the cooling expectations of further rate hikes, leading to an increase in short-term bonds while long-term yields have risen, widening the spread between short and long-term borrowing costs [2] Group 2: Strategic Insights - Strategists from Société Générale believe that the current flattening of the Japanese government bond yield curve is excessive, given the lack of clarity in fiscal policy and the upcoming increase in long-term supply [2] - Deutsche Bank's team suggests exiting bets on further flattening after approximately 25 basis points of movement, citing valuation factors and the dovish nominations to the Bank of Japan's board [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Following Kishida's election, the market anticipates a more proactive yet disciplined fiscal agenda, which has led to a significant flattening of the yield curve, with the spread between 2-year and 30-year Japanese government bond yields narrowing to about 210 basis points from January highs [3] - There is a rising possibility of further "twisted steepening" in the bond market, characterized by falling short-term yields and rising long-term yields, which could lead to increased volatility if the market reassesses Kishida's policy preferences [3]