华尔街风向突变：高市早苗效应过度演绎，策略师反手押注日债曲线“再陡峭化”

Group 1 - The election of high-profile candidate Kishi has led to a sharp flattening of the Japanese government bond yield curve, causing Wall Street's previously confident trading strategies to shift [1] - Strategists believe that the market's interpretation of Kishi's victory has been overextended, with the current risk balance shifting towards supporting a steepening of the yield curve [1] - Citigroup and Deutsche Bank have exited their bets on short-term Japanese government bond yields rising faster than long-term yields, joining Société Générale in indicating a shift in risk balance [1] Group 2 - Following Kishi's victory, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with the difference between 2-year and 30-year Japanese government bond yields narrowing from a peak of approximately 210 basis points in January [2] - There are indications that Kishi's policy preferences may be stronger than initially assumed by the market, potentially reigniting selling pressure and volatility in the bond market [2] - SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Ataru Okumura noted that overseas investors may not have accurately assessed the re-inflationist stance of the newly nominated members of the Bank of Japan's policy committee, which could lead to additional distortions in the bond market [2]