Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-26 06:13Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium concentrate exports is expected to significantly disrupt supply, impacting global lithium carbonate availability [2][3] Supply Impact - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to enhance mineral regulation and accountability [2] - By 2025, China is projected to import a total of 1.19 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, translating to a lithium carbonate output of 148,800 tons, indicating Zimbabwe's substantial influence on global lithium supply [2][3] - If Zimbabwe's export ban persists, the supply of lithium ore will tighten considerably [2][3] Policy Consistency - Since 2022, Zimbabwe has prohibited the export of unprocessed lithium ore, allowing only lithium concentrate exports [3] - Plans are in place to ban lithium concentrate exports starting January 2027, permitting only the export of higher-value lithium sulfate [3] - The government is actively checking for violations of the export ban, indicating a commitment to keeping lithium processing within the country [3] Market Fundamentals - Lithium carbonate inventory has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with an accelerating pace of depletion, suggesting a strong market fundamental [4] - Demand recovery post-Chinese New Year is expected to maintain inventory depletion, leading to a bullish outlook for lithium carbonate prices [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to grow rapidly in 2026, driven by the needs of energy storage and power batteries, while supply disruptions continue to affect the market [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Cangge Mining (000408), Ganfeng Lithium (002460), Tianqi Lithium (002466), Yongxing Materials (002756), and Yahua Group (002497) [5]