SCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2026-02-26 06:38Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry in China is expected to enter a recovery phase in the second half of 2025, with significant growth in excavator sales both domestically and internationally in January 2026, confirming the turning point of the industry cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry exhibits strong cyclicality due to the interplay of downstream demand fluctuations, supply-side adjustments, policy regulation timing, and global economic resonance [2]. - In 2025, China is projected to sell 235,257 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, with domestic sales of 118,518 units (up 17.9%) and exports of 116,739 units (up 16.1%) [2]. - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, marking a 49.5% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and exports at 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [2]. Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The industry is experiencing a resonance pattern of stabilizing domestic demand, high overseas growth, and a significant update in product structure [3]. - The previous sales peak (2016-2020) has led to a theoretical replacement period for equipment from 2024 to 2026, driven by policies promoting the elimination of old equipment [3]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in Q4 2025 may boost infrastructure investments in Europe and the U.S., while the Belt and Road Initiative continues to expand infrastructure investments, particularly in mining and water conservancy projects [3]. - Electrification and automation are identified as key growth drivers, with projections indicating that sales of new energy mining trucks in China will exceed 2,000 units by 2025, and the penetration rate of autonomous mining trucks will rise from 1% in 2021 to 6% in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The North Exchange is home to a complete industrial chain in the engineering machinery sector, with numerous small giants in niche markets [4]. - The focus on specific segments such as non-road dump trucks, tunnel construction equipment, drilling rigs, and road recycling equipment is recommended, with companies like Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (920174.BJ) and Tongli Co. (920599.BJ) highlighted [4]. - Key components such as hydraulic systems, filtration systems, thermal management systems, and electronic control systems are also of interest, with companies like Wantong Hydraulic (920839.BJ) and Taikai Ying (920020.BJ) suggested for investment [4]. - In the parts and materials sector, companies like Lintai New Materials (920106.BJ) and Litong Technology (920225.BJ) are recommended for their products including friction materials, gears, bearings, and seals [4].