东兴证券：春节错期导致国内航线1月数据平淡 春运航旅数据表现良好

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a decline in domestic flight capacity for January 2026 compared to the previous year, attributed to the later timing of the Spring Festival, while overall performance during the Spring Festival period shows improvement in passenger metrics [1][2]. Domestic Routes - In January 2026, the domestic flight capacity of listed companies decreased by approximately 4.3% year-on-year but increased by about 5.8% compared to December 2025 [1][2]. - The overall passenger load factor for January improved by approximately 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to December [1][2]. - The Spring Festival indicators show improvements compared to the previous year, with a significant increase in passenger volume outpacing flight volume growth by over 3 percentage points, leading to expectations of a notable rise in load factors in February [2]. International Routes - In January 2026, the international flight capacity of listed airlines increased by about 2.6% year-on-year and by 0.6% compared to December [3]. - The passenger load factor for international routes improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year and by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The negative impact from Japanese routes is gradually easing, although Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines still face challenges due to the timing of the Spring Festival [3]. Airport Sector - In January, Shanghai Airport's international passenger throughput decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, while Beijing, Baiyun, and Shenzhen airports saw increases of 4.7%, 19.8%, and 2.7% respectively [4]. - Baiyun Airport has shown significant improvement in passenger throughput since December, while Shanghai Airport's decline is partly due to a shift in travel demand towards Southeast Asia following restrictions on Japanese routes [4]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is experiencing a long-term process of reducing competition, which is expected to enhance overall profitability as supply growth is constrained and load factors steadily improve [5]. - Large airlines are anticipated to benefit more significantly from this trend, making them a focal point for investment [5].